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        Carla Baizeau
      Organisation_Name: 
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      Citation: 
        Citation: 
          Title: 
            Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2100 
            Intermediate-Low Scenario: 1 Day Per Year
          Date: 
            Date: 
              Date: 
                Date: 
                  2024-07-31
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              Date: 
                Date: 
                  2024-07-31
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              Individual_Name: 
                Carla Baizeau
              Organisation_Name: 
                University of Hawaii at Manoa
              Contact_Information: 
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                  Address: 
                    Address: 
                      Electronic_Mail_Address: 
                        cbaizeau@hawaii.edu
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                Philip R. Thompson
              Organisation_Name: 
                University of Hawaii Sea Level Rise Center (UHSLC)
              Contact_Information: 
                Contact: 
                  Address: 
                    Address: 
                      Electronic_Mail_Address: 
                        philiprt@hawaii.edu
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                Role_Code: 
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                Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS)
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                  Address: 
                    Address: 
                      Electronic_Mail_Address: 
                        info@pacioos.org
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            Related publications: Han, S.-C., J. Sauber, F. Pollitz, and R. 
            Ray. 2019. Sea level rise in the Samoan Islands escalated by 
            viscoelastic relaxation after the 2009 Samoa-Tonga earthquake. 
            Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124, 4142-4156. 
            https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB017110; Sweet, W.V., B.D. 
            Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. 
            Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, 
            J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. 
            Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, 
            and C. Zuzak. 2022. Global and regional sea level rise scenarios 
            for the United States: Updated mean projections and extreme water 
            level probabilities along U.S. coastlines. NOAA Technical Report 
            NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National 
            Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. 
            https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf; 
            Thompson, P.R., M.J. Widlansky, B.D. Hamlington, M.A. Merrifield, 
            J.J. Marra, G.T. Mitchum, and W. Sweet. 2021. Rapid increases and 
            extreme months in projections of United States high-tide flooding. 
            Nature Climate Change, 11, 584-590. 
            https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01077-8.
      Abstract: 
        This extreme high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future 
        sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive 
        flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an 
        assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These 
        water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. 
        Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with 
        land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter 
        is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, 
        and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose 
        Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The 
        projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five 
        scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse 
        gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100.
        
        We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar 
        DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled 
        from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The 
        adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of 
        historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any 
        inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding 
        estimates.
        
        When assessing the impacts of future sea level rise, it is important 
        to consider how often flood conditions will occur in a given year. A 
        low-lying location will begin to see impacts of being flooded a few 
        times per year. Then, as sea level rise increases, it will flood tens 
        of times per year. Eventually, that location may be flooded under a 
        daily high tide. The present scenario models a frequency of one 
        flooding day per year, a good indicator of the flooding extent and 
        depth during the most extreme "King Tide" annually. Please note that 
        this frequency represents an average number of times per year 
        (Thompson et al., 2021). Any particular year may have substantially 
        more or less flooding days depending on local climate variability 
        (such as the El Nino, La Nina cycle) and year-to-year variability in 
        the tides due to changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. 
        Secondly, flooding frequencies are based on data from the Pago Pago 
        tide gauge on Tutuila, which means that estimates may not perfectly 
        represent local conditions outside the harbor or on other islands. 
        However, this is the best source of information available, and we do 
        not expect this to lead to significant inaccuracies in the estimates 
        of flooding frequency.
        
        In the 2100 intermediate-low scenario represented here, the modeled 
        water level for a 1-day frequency is 171 cm (134 cm for Rose and 
        Swains). In this scenario, world-wide society limits increase of 
        emissions, and sea level rises without reaching any tipping points, 
        i.e. large and sudden changes such as a rapid increase in ice sheets 
        melting. It is recommended to use this scenario only for planning 
        construction of non-critical infrastructure that owners can afford to 
        lose, such as a beach "fale".
        
        Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high 
        water (MHHW) tide level.
        
        It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to 
        produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on 
        flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under 
        high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted 
        for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be 
        unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and 
        changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. 
        This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any 
        flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case 
        scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to 
        greater flood extent and depth than presented.
      Purpose: 
        PacIOOS provides timely, reliable, and accurate ocean information to 
        support a safe, clean, productive ocean and resilient coastal zone in 
        the U.S. Pacific Islands region.
      Credit: 
        Using data produced by the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center 
        (UHSLC), this product was developed in cooperation with the Pacific 
        Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) at the University of Hawaii 
        at Manoa (UH) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) 
        and the Department of Oceanography at UH SOEST in partnership with the 
        University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program, also within UH SOEST. 
        An associated online viewer was funded by the Pacific Islands Climate 
        Adaptation Science Center (PI-CASC).
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            Carla Baizeau
          Organisation_Name: 
            University of Hawaii at Manoa
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                    cbaizeau@hawaii.edu
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            Earth Science > Climate Indicators > Atmospheric/Ocean Indicators 
            > Sea Level Rise > Inundation
          Keyword: 
            Earth Science > Human Dimensions > Environmental Impacts
          Keyword: 
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            This data layer provides a scientific prediction of potential 
            future conditions from flooding due to sea level rise. The 
            methodology is based on published, peer-reviewed techniques. 
            However, as with any forecast, accuracy cannot be guaranteed and 
            actual impacts may vary from these predictions. While considerable 
            effort has been made to implement all components in a thorough, 
            correct, and accurate manner, errors are still possible. The 
            results are provided without warranty of any kind. The risks 
            associated with use or non-use of the results are assumed by the 
            user. The data may be used and redistributed for free but is not 
            intended for legal use, since it may contain inaccuracies. Neither 
            the data Contributor, University of Hawaii, PacIOOS, NOAA, State 
            of Hawaii nor the United States Government, nor any of their 
            employees or contractors, makes any warranty, express or implied, 
            including warranties of merchantability and fitness for a 
            particular purpose, or assumes any legal liability for the 
            accuracy, completeness, or usefulness, of this information.
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          Title: 
            Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2100 
            Intermediate-Low Scenario: 1 Day Per Year
          Date: 
            Date: 
              Date: 
                Date: 
                  2024-07-31
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                Carla Baizeau
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                University of Hawaii at Manoa
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                        cbaizeau@hawaii.edu
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      Abstract: 
        This extreme high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future 
        sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive 
        flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an 
        assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These 
        water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. 
        Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with 
        land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter 
        is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, 
        and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose 
        Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The 
        projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five 
        scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse 
        gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100.
        
        We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar 
        DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled 
        from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The 
        adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of 
        historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any 
        inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding 
        estimates.
        
        When assessing the impacts of future sea level rise, it is important 
        to consider how often flood conditions will occur in a given year. A 
        low-lying location will begin to see impacts of being flooded a few 
        times per year. Then, as sea level rise increases, it will flood tens 
        of times per year. Eventually, that location may be flooded under a 
        daily high tide. The present scenario models a frequency of one 
        flooding day per year, a good indicator of the flooding extent and 
        depth during the most extreme "King Tide" annually. Please note that 
        this frequency represents an average number of times per year 
        (Thompson et al., 2021). Any particular year may have substantially 
        more or less flooding days depending on local climate variability 
        (such as the El Nino, La Nina cycle) and year-to-year variability in 
        the tides due to changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. 
        Secondly, flooding frequencies are based on data from the Pago Pago 
        tide gauge on Tutuila, which means that estimates may not perfectly 
        represent local conditions outside the harbor or on other islands. 
        However, this is the best source of information available, and we do 
        not expect this to lead to significant inaccuracies in the estimates 
        of flooding frequency.
        
        In the 2100 intermediate-low scenario represented here, the modeled 
        water level for a 1-day frequency is 171 cm (134 cm for Rose and 
        Swains). In this scenario, world-wide society limits increase of 
        emissions, and sea level rises without reaching any tipping points, 
        i.e. large and sudden changes such as a rapid increase in ice sheets 
        melting. It is recommended to use this scenario only for planning 
        construction of non-critical infrastructure that owners can afford to 
        lose, such as a beach "fale".
        
        Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high 
        water (MHHW) tide level.
        
        It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to 
        produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on 
        flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under 
        high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted 
        for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be 
        unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and 
        changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. 
        This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any 
        flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case 
        scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to 
        greater flood extent and depth than presented.
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          Title: 
            Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2100 
            Intermediate-Low Scenario: 1 Day Per Year
          Date: 
            Date: 
              Date: 
                Date: 
                  2024-07-31
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            Date: 
              Date: 
                Date: 
                  2024-07-31
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                University of Hawaii at Manoa
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                        cbaizeau@hawaii.edu
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      Abstract: 
        This extreme high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future 
        sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive 
        flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an 
        assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These 
        water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. 
        Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with 
        land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter 
        is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, 
        and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose 
        Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The 
        projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five 
        scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse 
        gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100.
        
        We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar 
        DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled 
        from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The 
        adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of 
        historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any 
        inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding 
        estimates.
        
        When assessing the impacts of future sea level rise, it is important 
        to consider how often flood conditions will occur in a given year. A 
        low-lying location will begin to see impacts of being flooded a few 
        times per year. Then, as sea level rise increases, it will flood tens 
        of times per year. Eventually, that location may be flooded under a 
        daily high tide. The present scenario models a frequency of one 
        flooding day per year, a good indicator of the flooding extent and 
        depth during the most extreme "King Tide" annually. Please note that 
        this frequency represents an average number of times per year 
        (Thompson et al., 2021). Any particular year may have substantially 
        more or less flooding days depending on local climate variability 
        (such as the El Nino, La Nina cycle) and year-to-year variability in 
        the tides due to changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. 
        Secondly, flooding frequencies are based on data from the Pago Pago 
        tide gauge on Tutuila, which means that estimates may not perfectly 
        represent local conditions outside the harbor or on other islands. 
        However, this is the best source of information available, and we do 
        not expect this to lead to significant inaccuracies in the estimates 
        of flooding frequency.
        
        In the 2100 intermediate-low scenario represented here, the modeled 
        water level for a 1-day frequency is 171 cm (134 cm for Rose and 
        Swains). In this scenario, world-wide society limits increase of 
        emissions, and sea level rises without reaching any tipping points, 
        i.e. large and sudden changes such as a rapid increase in ice sheets 
        melting. It is recommended to use this scenario only for planning 
        construction of non-critical infrastructure that owners can afford to 
        lose, such as a beach "fale".
        
        Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high 
        water (MHHW) tide level.
        
        It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to 
        produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on 
        flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under 
        high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted 
        for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be 
        unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and 
        changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. 
        This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any 
        flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case 
        scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to 
        greater flood extent and depth than presented.
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          Title: 
            Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2100 
            Intermediate-Low Scenario: 1 Day Per Year
          Date: 
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              Date: 
                Date: 
                  2024-07-31
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              Date: 
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                  2024-07-31
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                University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC)
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      Abstract: 
        This extreme high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future 
        sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive 
        flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an 
        assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These 
        water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. 
        Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with 
        land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter 
        is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, 
        and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose 
        Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The 
        projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five 
        scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse 
        gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100.
        
        We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar 
        DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled 
        from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The 
        adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of 
        historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any 
        inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding 
        estimates.
        
        When assessing the impacts of future sea level rise, it is important 
        to consider how often flood conditions will occur in a given year. A 
        low-lying location will begin to see impacts of being flooded a few 
        times per year. Then, as sea level rise increases, it will flood tens 
        of times per year. Eventually, that location may be flooded under a 
        daily high tide. The present scenario models a frequency of one 
        flooding day per year, a good indicator of the flooding extent and 
        depth during the most extreme "King Tide" annually. Please note that 
        this frequency represents an average number of times per year 
        (Thompson et al., 2021). Any particular year may have substantially 
        more or less flooding days depending on local climate variability 
        (such as the El Nino, La Nina cycle) and year-to-year variability in 
        the tides due to changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. 
        Secondly, flooding frequencies are based on data from the Pago Pago 
        tide gauge on Tutuila, which means that estimates may not perfectly 
        represent local conditions outside the harbor or on other islands. 
        However, this is the best source of information available, and we do 
        not expect this to lead to significant inaccuracies in the estimates 
        of flooding frequency.
        
        In the 2100 intermediate-low scenario represented here, the modeled 
        water level for a 1-day frequency is 171 cm (134 cm for Rose and 
        Swains). In this scenario, world-wide society limits increase of 
        emissions, and sea level rises without reaching any tipping points, 
        i.e. large and sudden changes such as a rapid increase in ice sheets 
        melting. It is recommended to use this scenario only for planning 
        construction of non-critical infrastructure that owners can afford to 
        lose, such as a beach "fale".
        
        Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high 
        water (MHHW) tide level.
        
        It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to 
        produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on 
        flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under 
        high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted 
        for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be 
        unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and 
        changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. 
        This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any 
        flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case 
        scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to 
        greater flood extent and depth than presented.
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                    NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS 
                    Topobathy Lidar DEM of Ofu and Olosega, American Samoa. 
                    NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
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                    NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS). 2022. NOAA NGS 
                    Topobathy Lidar DEM of Tutuila, American Samoa. NOAA 
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      Lineage: 
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          Statement: 
            2023-09-26T00:00:00Z Initial release (Version 1.0).
            2024-07-31T00:00:00Z Data Update (Version 2.0): For improved 
            accuracy, sea level rise inundation was recalculated using a newly 
            released higher resolution digital elevation model (DEM) as its 
            basis. Version 1.0 used a 2021 DEM with 1/9 arc-second resolution, 
            except for Rose Atoll where a 2012 DEM with 1/3 arc-second 
            resolution was used (NOAA/CIRES CUDEM). In contrast, Version 2.0 
            uses a NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS) 2022 lidar DEM with 
            1-meter resolution. Swains Island is now included in the Verison 
            2.0 results, but it and Rose Atoll do not include vertical land 
            motion (VLM) in their estimates. All DEMs were leveled to mean sea 
            level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005.
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        This record was translated and enhanced from GeoServer OGC Web 
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