Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2090 Intermediate Scenario: 50 Days Per Year
Identification Information
Citation:
Citation Information:
Title:
Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2090 Intermediate Scenario: 50 Days Per Year
Date:
Date: July 31, 2024
Date Type:
creation
(CI_DateTypeCode)
Edition:
2.0
Identifier:
Code:
as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2090_int_50day_v2
Authority:
org.pacioos
Responsible Party:
Individual Name:
Carla Baizeau
Organization Name:
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Contact:
Contact Address:
Email:
cbaizeau@hawaii.edu
Online Resource:
Linkage: https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
Protocol:
http
Function:
information
(CI_OnLineFunctionCode)
Contact Role:
originator
(CI_RoleCode)
Responsible Party:
Individual Name:
Philip R. Thompson
Organization Name:
University of Hawaii Sea Level Rise Center (UHSLC)
Contact:
Contact Address:
Email:
philiprt@hawaii.edu
Contact Role:
originator
(CI_RoleCode)
Responsible Party:
Organization Name:
Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS)
Contact:
Contact Address:
Email:
info@pacioos.org
Online Resource:
Linkage: http://pacioos.org
Protocol:
http
Function:
information
(CI_OnLineFunctionCode)
Contact Role:
publisher
(CI_RoleCode)
Other Citation Details:
Related publications: Han, S.-C., J. Sauber, F. Pollitz, and R. Ray. 2019. Sea level rise in the Samoan Islands escalated by viscoelastic relaxation after the 2009 Samoa-Tonga earthquake. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 124, 4142-4156. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JB017110; Sweet, W.V., B.D. Hamlington, R.E. Kopp, C.P. Weaver, P.L. Barnard, D. Bekaert, W. Brooks, M. Craghan, G. Dusek, T. Frederikse, G. Garner, A.S. Genz, J.P. Krasting, E. Larour, D. Marcy, J.J. Marra, J. Obeysekera, M. Osler, M. Pendleton, D. Roman, L. Schmied, W. Veatch, K.D. White, and C. Zuzak. 2022. Global and regional sea level rise scenarios for the United States: Updated mean projections and extreme water level probabilities along U.S. coastlines. NOAA Technical Report NOS 01. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Ocean Service, Silver Spring, MD, 111 pp. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/noaa-nos-techrpt01-global-regional-SLR-scenarios-US.pdf; Thompson, P.R., M.J. Widlansky, B.D. Hamlington, M.A. Merrifield, J.J. Marra, G.T. Mitchum, and W. Sweet. 2021. Rapid increases and extreme months in projections of United States high-tide flooding. Nature Climate Change, 11, 584-590. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01077-8.
Suggested data citation: Baizeau, C. and P.R. Thompson. 2024. Sea Level Rise: American Samoa: Extreme High-Tide Flooding: 2090 Intermediate Scenario: 50 Days Per Year. Version 2.0. Distributed by the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS). http://pacioos.org/metadata/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2090_int_50day_v2.html. Accessed [date].
Abstract:
This extreme high-tide flooding layer provides a prediction of future sea level rise (SLR) inundation and was produced using a passive flooding model, often referred to as a "bathtub" model. It provides an assessment of flooded areas according to a specific water level. These water levels are determined using projections from the U.S. Interagency Task Force (ITF) (Sweet et al., 2022) in combination with land subsidence projections modeled by Han et al. (2019). The latter is included only for Tutuila, Aunuu, and Manua Islands (Ofu, Olosega, and Tau). In contrast, SLR projections for Swains Island and Rose Atoll only include the climate-related processes (ITF). The projections are modeled following both scenarios and time. The five scenarios range from low to high depending on the amount of greenhouse gases emissions, while time is divided by decade from 2030 to 2100.
We apply this model to the 2022 National Geodetic Survey (NGS) lidar DEM for American Samoa with 1-meter resolution. The DEM was leveled from NAD83 (PA11) to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005. The adjustment of the DEM may lead to inaccuracies due to the lack of historic information. It is also important to acknowledge that any inaccuracies in the DEM will lead to inaccuracies in the flooding estimates.
When assessing the impacts of future sea level rise, it is important to consider how often flood conditions will occur in a given year. A low-lying location will begin to see impacts of being flooded a few times per year. Then, as sea level rise increases, it will flood tens of times per year. Eventually, that location may be flooded under a daily high tide. The present scenario models a frequency of 50 flooding days per year. Please note that this frequency represents an average number of times per year (Thompson et al., 2021). Any particular year may have substantially more or less flooding days depending on local climate variability (such as the El Nino, La Nina cycle) and year-to-year variability in the tides due to changes in the alignment of the Earth, Moon, and Sun. Secondly, flooding frequencies are based on data from the Pago Pago tide gauge on Tutuila, which means that estimates may not perfectly represent local conditions outside the harbor or on other islands. However, this is the best source of information available, and we do not expect this to lead to significant inaccuracies in the estimates of flooding frequency.
In the 2090 intermediate scenario represented here, the modeled water level for a 50-day frequency is 182 cm (145 cm for Rose and Swains). In this scenario, world-wide society continues current emissions rates, and sea level rises at increased rates compared to the intermediate-low scenario. Tipping points, i.e. large and sudden changes, are still not crossed. It is recommended using this scenario for planning construction of infrastructure with low-to-medium critical use and lifespans extending into the second half of the century, such as a new storefront.
Flood depth is provided in centimeters above the 2005 mean higher high water (MHHW) tide level.
It is essential to emphasize that the passive flooding model used to produce this data layer does not include the effects of waves on flooding. As a result, the extent and impacts of future flooding under high-wave conditions are not represented, which should be accounted for in planning efforts. In addition, the DEM is assumed to be unchanged as sea level rises, but in fact there will be erosion and changes in the shape of the land surface, and continued subsidence. This also must be considered, and it is best practice to consider any flooding extent or depth represented in this data layer as a best-case scenario, with the effects of dynamic shoreline processes leading to greater flood extent and depth than presented.
Purpose:
PacIOOS provides timely, reliable, and accurate ocean information to support a safe, clean, productive ocean and resilient coastal zone in the U.S. Pacific Islands region.
Credit:
Using data produced by the University of Hawaii Sea Level Center (UHSLC), this product was developed in cooperation with the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) at the University of Hawaii at Manoa (UH) School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) and the Department of Oceanography at UH SOEST in partnership with the University of Hawaii Sea Grant College Program, also within UH SOEST. An associated online viewer was funded by the Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Science Center (PI-CASC).
Point of Contact:
Responsible Party:
Individual Name:
Carla Baizeau
Organization Name:
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Contact:
Contact Address:
Email:
cbaizeau@hawaii.edu
Online Resource:
Linkage: https://uhslc.soest.hawaii.edu
Protocol:
http
Function:
information
(CI_OnLineFunctionCode)
Contact Role:
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Image File: http://www.pacioos.hawaii.edu/metadata/browse/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2090_int_50day_v2.png
File Description:
Sample image.
Descriptive Keywords:
Keywords:
Keyword Type:
theme
(MD_KeywordTypeCode)
Keyword: Earth Science Climate Indicators Atmospheric/Ocean Indicators Sea Level Rise Inundation
Keyword: Earth Science Human Dimensions Environmental Impacts
Keyword: Earth Science Human Dimensions Natural Hazards Floods
Keyword: Earth Science Oceans Coastal Processes Sea Level Rise
Keyword Thesaurus:
Citation Information:
Title:
GCMD Science Keywords
Keywords:
Keyword Type:
place
(MD_KeywordTypeCode)
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Aunuu
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Manua
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Ofu
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Olosega
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Rose Atoll
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Swains
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Tau
Keyword: Ocean Pacific Ocean South Pacific Ocean Polynesia American Samoa Tutuila
Keyword Thesaurus:
Citation Information:
Title:
GCMD Location Keywords
Keywords:
Keyword Type:
project
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Keyword: PacIOOS Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System
Keyword Thesaurus:
Citation Information:
Title:
GCMD Project Keywords
Keywords:
Keyword Type:
dataCenter
(MD_KeywordTypeCode)
Keyword: PacIOOS Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System
Keyword Thesaurus:
Citation Information:
Title:
GCMD Data Center Keywords
Aggregation Information:
Aggregate Dataset Name:
Citation Information:
Title:
Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS)
Association Type: largerWorkCitation (DS_AssociationTypeCode)
Initiative Type: project (DS_InitiativeTypeCode)
Resource Constraints:
Legal Constraints:
Use Limitation:
This data layer provides a scientific prediction of potential future conditions from flooding due to sea level rise. The methodology is based on published, peer-reviewed techniques. However, as with any forecast, accuracy cannot be guaranteed and actual impacts may vary from these predictions. While considerable effort has been made to implement all components in a thorough, correct, and accurate manner, errors are still possible. The results are provided without warranty of any kind. The risks associated with use or non-use of the results are assumed by the user. The data may be used and redistributed for free but is not intended for legal use, since it may contain inaccuracies. Neither the data Contributor, University of Hawaii, PacIOOS, NOAA, State of Hawaii nor the United States Government, nor any of their employees or contractors, makes any warranty, express or implied, including warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose, or assumes any legal liability for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness, of this information.
Language:
eng
Topic Category:
oceans
Extent Information:
Spatial Temporal Extent:
Geographic Element:
Bounding Coordinates:
Westbound Longitude: -171.08979°
Eastbound Longitude: -168.14085°
Southbound Latitude: -14.55976°
Northbound Latitude: -11.04800°
Services:
Service Identification:
Identifier: OGC-WFS
Service Type:
Open Geospatial Consortium Web Feature Service (WFS)
Contains Operation:
Operation Name:
GetCapabilities
Online Resource:
Linkage: http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2090_int_50day_v2/ows?service=WFS&version=1.0.0&request=GetCapabilities
Name:
OGC-WFS
Protocol:
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Description:
Open Geospatial Consortium Web Feature Service (WFS). Supported WFS versions include 1.0.0, 1.1.0, and 2.0.0. Supported output formats include CSV, GeoJSON, GeoJSON-P, GML, KML, and Shapefile (Zipped).
Function:
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Service Identification:
Identifier: OGC-WMS
Service Type:
Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service (WMS)
Contains Operation:
Operation Name:
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Online Resource:
Linkage: http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/as_uhslc_all_slr_xflood_2090_int_50day_v2/ows?service=WMS&version=1.3.0&request=GetCapabilities
Name:
OGC-WMS
Protocol:
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Description:
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Identifier: OGC-WMS-C
Service Type:
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Contains Operation:
Operation Name:
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Online Resource:
Linkage: http://geo.pacioos.hawaii.edu/geoserver/PACIOOS/gwc/service/wms?service=WMS&version=1.1.1&request=GetCapabilities&tiled=true
Name:
OGC-WMS-C
Protocol:
OGC:WMS-C
Description:
Open Geospatial Consortium Web Map Service - Cached (WMS-C). Use of WMS-C is similar to traditional WMS but with the addition of the "tiled=true" parameter, which triggers GeoServer to pull map tiles from GeoWebCache if they have been previously generated. This can dramatically improve performance, especially for larger datasets. Supported map formats include JPEG and PNG. Supported info formats include GeoJSON, GML, HTML, and plain text.
Function:
download
(CI_OnLineFunctionCode)
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Data Quality Information
Scope:
dataset
Lineage:
Statement:
2023-09-26T00:00:00Z Initial release (Version 1.0).
2024-07-31T00:00:00Z Data Update (Version 2.0): For improved accuracy, sea level rise inundation was recalculated using a newly released higher resolution digital elevation model (DEM) as its basis. Version 1.0 used a 2021 DEM with 1/9 arc-second resolution, except for Rose Atoll where a 2012 DEM with 1/3 arc-second resolution was used (NOAA/CIRES CUDEM). In contrast, Version 2.0 uses a NOAA National Geodetic Survey (NGS) 2022 lidar DEM with 1-meter resolution. Swains Island is now included in the Verison 2.0 results, but it and Rose Atoll do not include vertical land motion (VLM) in their estimates. All DEMs were leveled to mean sea level at 0 m (MSL=0) in 2005.
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Spatial Representation Information
Content Information
Coverage Description:
Dimensions:
Dimension:
Attribute Name:
flood
Attribute Type:
int
Descriptor:
Projected flood depth in centimeters (cm) above the 2005 mean higher high water (MHHW) tide level due to sea level rise inundation according to the modeled scenario.
Dimension:
Attribute Name:
geom
Attribute Type:
gml:MultiSurfacePropertyType
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Metadata Reference Information
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